Weekly Commodity Report

WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT 10 MARCH TO 14 MARCH 2014

Gold marks time ahead of US data, set for 5th week gains: Gold edged lower on Friday, as investors marked time ahead of a US jobs report, but the metal was on track for a fifth straight week of gains on support from a weaker dollar and tensions in Ukraine. The US nonfarm payroll figures later in the day should help gauge the strength of the labor market in the world’s top economy and the implications for the pace of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus reduction. Spot gold was down 0.1 per cent at $1,349.10 an ounce by 1031 GMT, after rising 1 per cent on Thursday. It has risen nearly 2 percent for the week, its biggest weekly gain since mid-February. Gold futures for April delivery were down 0.2 per cent at $1,348.90 an ounce. “When we look at the consensus on the payrolls, it is actually quite optimistic because the really cold weather conditions in the U.S. lasted throughout February as well,”. “So there could be some disappointment, which would probably give a last mini-push to gold,”. “However, as we move to the second quarter, we don’t see why investors would begin to build heavy gold positions, given expectations of an improvement in the global economy and a possible stabilization in Ukraine.”Gold hit a four-month high on Monday at $1,354.80 an ounce on escalation in tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine’s mainly Russian speaking Crimea peninsula.for More

Oil price rise on US jobs data, Ukraine issue: Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday ahead of the release of a key monthly US jobs report while investors keep an eye on the crisis in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. Click for More

New York’s main contract, West Texas Intermediate for April delivery, rose 37 cents to $101.93 in afternoon Asian trade. Brent North Sea crude for April was up 37 cents at $108.47. Investors are expecting the US non-farm payrolls report for February due out later Friday to mirror strong jobless claims figures released on Thursday. First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to a three-month low of 323,000 in the week ending March 1, from the prior week’s revised reading of 349,000. The ex-Soviet state is in danger of breaking apart after Crimea’s parliament unanimously voted to join Russia, in a sharp escalation of the worst East-West security crisis since the Cold War. Both Kiev’s new Western-backed interim leaders and US President Barack Obama denounced the decision as illegal and illegitimate. Washington has slapped visa bans on Russians and Ukrainians involved in the Crimean incursion. The complications arising from Eastern Europe (are) likely to provide good support to crude oil due to fears over disruptions.

Copper Posts Biggest Decline Since 2011 on China Demand Concern: Copper futures in New York capped the biggest loss in more than two years as China’s first onshore default stoked concern that rising debt will curb demand in the Asian nation, the world’s largest consumer.

Copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have climbed for eight straight weeks, the longest streak in two years, adding to signs of slowing use. Prices have lost 9.2 percent this year, the most among 34, as signs of faltering growth in China boosted the outlook for a surplus. Global production will outpace demand by 81,000 metric tons in 2014, after a deficit of 175,000 tons last year. The potential for more default is really what’s pushing the market. The market seems to be poised for another move lower.

Copper futures for delivery in May slid 4.2 percent to settle at $3.0825 a pound at 1:25 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest drop since December 2011.Copper is particularly exposed to Chinese issues due to palpably high local stocks and associated financing deals. On the LME, copper for delivery in three months fell 3.8 percent to $6,782 a ton ($3.08 a pound). Orders to remove the metal from LME warehouses slid to the lowest since April. Aluminum, tin, lead, zinc and nickel also dropped in London.

MCX GOLD Technical Trend : MCX GOLD last week showed sideways movement, trades around 38.2% retracement and closed around it. Now, if it sustains at higher levels and trades above 30400 then bulls may lead it towards the resistance range of 30800-31000. On other hand 29750 will act as important support below which bearishness may drag it upto the level of 23.6% retracement at around 29100. Click for More

STRATEGY : Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 29700 for the targets of 29400-29000 with stop loss of 30420.

SILVER Technical Trend : MCX SILVER last week showed bearish movement and due to US job growth accelerated sharply it closed below important support level of 46750. Now, if it sustain below 45800 then next support range will be seen around 45000-46000. On higher side if maintains above 23.6% retracement i.e. 48000 then it may lead towards the resistance level of 49150.

STRATEGY :

Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 45700 for target of 44000, with stop loss of 48000.

MCX CRUDE OIL Technical Trend : Crude oillast weekbroke its important support level of 6275 and also broke upward channel pattern on lower side and found support of 23.6% retracement i.e. 6150. Now, if it gives closing above 6460 then only positive movement is expected upto the resistance level of 6580. On other hand sustaining below 6145 may drop it upto 6000.

STRATEGY : Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 6270 for the target of 6150, with stop loss of 6470.

MCX COPPER Technical Trend :

MCX Copper showed bearishness this week it closed below 61.8% retracement level. Now, if it trades below the support level of 420 then further bearishness can be seen which may drag to the next support level of 405. On higher side some correction can be seen upto 429 and above which strength may seen towards the resistance level of 439.

STRATEGY :

Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 420, with stop loss of 431 for the target of 410.

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