Weekly Currency Market Report

Market Outlook

On Friday, the rupee pared early morning gains to settle higher by 8 paise at 71.10 and throughout the week traded in the range of 71.1750 and 70.9100 against the US dollar on Friday as a sudden spike in Brent crude prices following missiles attack on an Iranian oil tanker weighed on investor sentiment. Also undermining the dollar, data showed on Thursday US consumer prices were unchanged in September and underlying inflation retreated, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in October.

Fundamental News

  • Sterling was the biggest mover overnight, jumping 2 per cent to a two-week high versus the dollar and posting its largest daily percentage gain in seven months on hopes of a Brexit resolution.
  • Top US and Chinese negotiators wrapped up a first day of trade talks in more than two months on Thursday.

Global Updates

  • German Imports Suggest Trade-Inflicted Slowdown Is Hitting Home.
  • Thailand Looks to Rein in Baht as It Hits 6-Year High.
  • Japanese Govt downgrades its view on the economy to ‘worsening’, flags recession risks.
  • Canada: Trade deficit likely to deteriorate to $1.50bn in August.
  • Indonesian Consumer Confidence dips to 121.8 in Sept, Rupiah at weekly highs.
  • USD/CAD struggles near weekly lows, below 1.3300 mark amid rising Oil prices.
  • China sets timetable to remove ownership cap on financial firms.

USDINR last week traded in very narrow range and closed with partial gain. 70.5000-71.5000 is seen as strong range for the currency pair breakout and closing on any side may decide further trend for it. Next support and resistance for the currency pair is seen around 70.0000 and 72.2000 respectively.

EURINR showed bullish movements on last two trading session of the week, gave breakout of its short term resistance on daily charts and closed above it. Now, 79.0000 is seen as immediate resistance for the currency pair sustaining above this mark it may find next resistance around 80.0000. On lower levels 78.0000 is act as support.

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